000
AGXX40 KNHC 161820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH OVER THE NW WATERS WILL DRIFT NW AND MOVE INLAND THIS 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE N GULF. THE RIDGE WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A RESULT...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION 
WILL BECOME SE TO S IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE W PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE IN THE W GULF WED AND THU...WITH SEAS BECOMING 3-6 
FT BY THU COMPARED TO 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT SIMILAR PATTERN OF 
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER YUCATAN MOVING W 
INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF 
EACH MORNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE COMBINATION OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA OVER THE 
WEST-CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND 
PANAMA WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 
COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE 
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON. A 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL ENTER TROPICAL N ATLC 
WATERS MON...REACH THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WED. A TROPICAL LOW S-SW OF THE CAPE VERDES ASSOCIATED 
WITH A WAVE ALONG 28W WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI BUT 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL 
FORECASTS REGARDING ITS INTENSITY AND SPEED OF FORWARD MOTION.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN WATERS 
THROUGH TUE...WITH AN E-W RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 30N 
THROUGH FRI. OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS 
OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 22N AND GENTLE WINDS N OF 23N. SEAS 
ARE GENERALLY 2-3 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE 
BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W THAT 
PASSED THROUGH PUERTO RICO LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE W OVER SOUTHERN 
WATERS TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TUE...AND SHOULD BRING 
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE. LITTLE 
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.