000 AGXX40 KNHC 150547 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 147 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. A THERMAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN THIS EVENING IS MOVING INTO THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SW WATERS IN ASSOCIATION TO THE THERMAL TROUGH WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF WATERS EACH NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SE WATERS LATE EACH MORNING. LOCALLY ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW WATERS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE...5-6 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THROUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS THE WAVES WILL BRING POCKETS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION AS THEY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA AND PUSH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NW WATERS W OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.