000
AGXX40 KNHC 141805
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL 
GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. SEAS 
ARE MINIMAL...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND 
DRIFT NW THROUGH EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF SUN...THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED. THE USUAL DIURNAL 
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SW GULF 
WATERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 15-20 KT 
WINDS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH SUN THROUGH TUE.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W CROSSING THE WINDWARDS IS 
MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP 
GRADIENT IN DEEP MOISTURE ALONG ITS AXIS. THE WAVE WILL REACH 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE W 
CARIBBEAN MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWS 
MAX SEAS ARE 8-9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LESS THAN 7 
FT ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NW WATERS NEAR JACKSONVILLE 
WILL PUSH INLAND LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG 30N 
OVER NORTHERN WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST 
OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 23N...WHERE WINDS ARE 
GENTLE TO MODERATE. SEAS ARE LESS THAN 5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 
1-2 FT W OF BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION... 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.