000 AGXX40 KNHC 140531 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 131 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND PREVAIL THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE NIGHT HOURS...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT THROUGH SAT EVENING... WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH ON SUN...MON AND TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TROPICAL WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVES WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS THOUGH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WAVES PASSAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR PULSING TO STRONG OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.