000 AGXX40 KNHC 120732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 332 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR SE GULF NEAR 24N85W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE E-SE WINDS W OF 90W...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS INDICATED IN THE 0254 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. E OF 90W...THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE-S GENTLE WINDS S OF 26N...AND GENTLE SW-W WINDS N OF 26N. THE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES ACROSS THE AREA SHOW LOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST WATERS AS THE WEAK RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED JUST INLAND AND ALONG THOSE COASTS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL GULF ON THU. WEAK LOW PRES WILL THE FORM ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI AND DRIFT W ON SAT...BUT IS FORECAST TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE WNW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE NE WINDS AS NOTED IN THE 0254 UTC ASCAT CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH EACH TIME IT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSISTING OF MWW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SW ATLC RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR POCKET OF STRONG NE WINDS FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 9-10 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 5-7 FT S OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 72W AND 81W...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT W OF W OF 81W. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT...THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE ON FRI FROM 11N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN COVERING THE WESTERN PORTION ZONE AMZ33 AND WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF ZONE AMZ31 WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER SOME SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU BEFORE THEY DIMINISH. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES...IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES AMZ027 AND AMZ037 FRI EVENING...MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THOSE ZONES EARLY ON SAT...AND REACH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE ON SAT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK RIDGE DISPLACED IN A SWD FASHION FROM NEAR 26N65W SW TO S FLORIDA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR 32N69W TO 28N74W TO 25N76W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 63W-72W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MOSTLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. WAVEHEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH A RANGE OF 3-4 FT ...AND LOWER HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU...THEN REFORM NEAR 28N ON FRI...EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION WHERE A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THAT PART OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...THEN STALLS AND LINGERS INTO SUN. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS MOISTURE GUIDANCE TO IMPACT THOSE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AIDED BY UPPER DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DROPS SEWD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT... AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK AGAIN TO 20-25 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.