000 AGXX40 KNHC 111700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W...DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION. GENERALLY EXPECT 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE RIDGE. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED THIS MORNING AT 26N92W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS E ACROSS THE N- CENTRAL WATERS ON WED ABSORBING THE CURRENT LOW PRES AND REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE MERGED FRONT STALLING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON THU. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI...THEN DRIFT W ON SAT....BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY 5-10 KT CYCLONIC FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NOCTURNALLY WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND ALONG THE FAR NW COAST OF VENEZUELA AS WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W AT 15 KT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI INTO SAT. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY THE WAVE AND DEPICTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 43W WILL CONTINUE W AT 15 KT PASSING 55W ON THU AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON FRI-SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM 31N60W TO THE FL STRAITS WILL SHIFT N ON WED REACHING FROM 31N66W TO EXTREME SE FL AND FROM 31N65W TO FT PIERCE FL ON THU-SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NE FL ON WED NIGHT IMMEDIATELY STALLING AND MEANDERING ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N SAT NIGHT AND PUSH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH INLAND ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.