000 AGXX40 KNHC 110940 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N93W AND WITH A RIDGE ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM NE TEXAS TO FAR SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SEAS IN THE LOW RANGE OF 1-3 FT. SEAS MAY BE SLIGHTER HIGHER OF 3-4 FT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT AS AS WEAK RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY ON WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS S TO OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS FRI INTO SAT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE WNW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSISTING OF MWW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SW ATLC RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY PRODUCING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-7 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER RANGES OF 1-3 FT W OF 83W. THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL EXPAND LATER TODAY OVER AN AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT...THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF TRADES THEN EXPANDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH A SMALL POCKET OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED FROM 11.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE 8-10 FT RANGE THERE. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON IN A SMALLER AREA WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 75W WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE...AND PULSE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR S OF 17N W OF 86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THESE WINDS WILL BE BRIEF IN DURATION...AND WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY ON WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND SOON WILL BE ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER ON WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THU...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ATTENDANT BY SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES...IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES AMZ027 AND AMZ037 LATE ON WED. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ZONES THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK SOUTHWARD DISPLACED RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N65W SW TO THE S FLORIDA. THE TROUGH EARLIER ANALYZED FROM JUST NE OF WEST PALM BEACH NE TO 31N72W IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO IN RECENT ASCAT DATA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAKENING SMALL TUTT FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE VICINITY OF 25N62W WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 63W-72W. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MOSTLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SEAS REMAIN AT RATHER LOW STATES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 3-4 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THU BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY N THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT...THUS IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THU AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FRI THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK AGAIN TO 20-25 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT AFTER TONIGHT...THESE WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE AT 20 KT. INDUCED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-6 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.