000 AGXX40 KNHC 101016 CCA MIMATS AGXX40 KNHC DDHHMM MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 352 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 CORRECTED SW N ATLC SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 1014 MB AT 25N92W. A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA SE TO 27N85W. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM REPORTING SITES ARE RECORDING GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE FOR THE THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW SHIP WITH CALLER ID "ELXX9" AT PSN 19.7N91.9W REPORTED NE 20 KT WINDS AT 0500 UTC ALONG WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5 FT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR 3-5 FT IN THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM 22N TO 27N W OF 96W. LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF YESTERDAY HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION FROM 25N TO 27N E OF 86W WHERE A FEW REMAINING CELLS MOVING WSW ARE NOTED. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SWD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION WED AND WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY THU WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N83W IS BRINGING INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE SE GULF...AND WATERS AROUND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SW ATLC RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO INITIATE FRESH TRADES FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL EXPAND LATE TONIGHT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG INTENSITY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 75W TO 76W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH 10 FT LATE TONIGHT AND 11 FT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON...THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN EARLY ON THU AND CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 6-8 FT. SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER RANGES OF 3-4 FT BETWEEN 81W AND 84W AND 2-3 FT W OF 84W. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ZONES ALONG 56W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON....MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 13N HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE GFS PCPN POTENTIAL GUIDANCE FROM 00 UTC PROGS THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EARLY ON TUE. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG A LINE FROM 31N72W TO JUST NE OF WEST PALM BEACH...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N AND E OF 71W. UPPER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH TUE WITH THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY DECREASING. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE E WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS REMAIN AT RATHER LOW STATES AS INDICATED IN THE BUOYS AND IN SEVERAL ALTIMETER SWATHS SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH WAVEHEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER RANGES OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY N THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION WED AND BECOMING STATIOANRY THROUGH FRI. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP AGAIN IN THE NW PORTION SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE LATER IN THE WEEK. NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA LATE TUE NIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK AGAIN TO 20-25 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.