000 AGXX40 KNHC 091834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W-NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGING...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 29N AND INTO A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA BAY NEAR 29N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NEAR 29N90W. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 84W-89W WITH BLOWOFF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE HIGH THEN NW TO NEAR GALVESTON BAY. GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SEAS RANGING GENERALLY 2-3 FT WITH A POCKET OF 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE SW GULF. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK FRONTAL IMPULSES DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CROSS THE NE GULF. FINALLY...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE WNW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER THE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING INFLUENCE PUSHED FARTHER NE...GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND 4-6 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 12N- 15N BETWEEN 69W-76W GENERATING SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING ONLY TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND WESTWARD IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 8-10 FT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES ALONG 53W WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY MON...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NOTED S OF 14N WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY TO THE WINDWARD ISLAND MON AND TUE. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FEATURES ANALYZED OVER THE AREA REMAIN ON THE RELATIVELY WEAK SIDE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 27N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 31N73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONT FROM 31N72W SW TO 26N79W AND PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PERSISTENT TUTT FEATURE IS NEAR 24N64W WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 59W-71W. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TUTT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH MON. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MOSTLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SEAS REMAIN AT RATHER LOW STATES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY N TUE THROUGH THU BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION WILL DRIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION WED WHILE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THROUGH THU. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE NW PORTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFFECTING MUCH OF ZONE AMZ113 AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE AMZ111. OUTSIDE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS FROM SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH CURRENT WIND/SEA CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.