000 AGXX40 KNHC 090719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 319 AM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HIGH CENTERS OF 1016 MB AT 26N88W...AND OF 1015 MB INLAND THE W FLORIDA COAST AT 27N82W. LATEST BUOY/OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SHIP WITH CALLER ID "ELXX9" AT PSN 19.7N91.9W REPORTED NE 20 KT WINDS AT 0500 UTC ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 FT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR 3-4 FT SEAS W OF 95W. LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH THE WEAK RIDGING CONTINUING TO HOLD IN PLACE. ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL TROUGHS DROP SWD FROM THE FLORIDA TO ACROSS THOSE AREAS OF THE GULF. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS INDUCED AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER AN AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND AGAIN EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN MON AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING ON MON NIGHT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THIS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON...THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN EARLY ON THU. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 8-9 FT LATE SUN NIGHT...TO 8-10 FT TUE AND SUBSIDE BACK TO 8-9 FT ON WED. SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT BETWEEN 81W AND 84W AND 2-3 FT W OF 84W. THE SMALL AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA YESTERDAY IS WEAKENING ALONG 71W AS IT IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AT THE SURFACE WITH TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON MON...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY ON WED...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT AS IT ALSO WEAKENS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FEATURES ANALYZED OVER THE AREA REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 25N...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION ALONG A LINE FROM 31N74W TO INLAND NE FLORIDA AS OF 0300 UTC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PERSISTENT TUTT FEATURE IS NEAR 24N64W WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN INCREASING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OBSERVED FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND ALSO S OF THE TUTT FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH MAY BE FORMING NEAR 28N64W PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP WITH CALLER ID "DFKP2" AT PSN 28N64W AT 0600 UTC WITH SW 15 KT WINDS AND PRES OF 1018 MB. THE 00 UTC GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRES OVER THAT GENERAL AREA...BUT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. UPPER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TUTT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH MON. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE E WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS REMAIN AT RATHER LOW STATES WITH WAVEHEIGHT RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY N TUE THROUGH THU PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION WILL SAG SOME TO THE S BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY BY EARLY MON EVENING. A TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD TO ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR 31N72W TO WEST PALM BEACH BY THEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION WED WHILE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THROUGH THU. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE NW PORTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFFECTING MUCH OF ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113. OUTSIDE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS FROM SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH CURRENT WIND/SEA CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.