000 AGXX40 KNHC 081837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG ABOUT 25N YIELDING GENTLE TO LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR 15 KT AND 3-4 FT ACROSS NE PORTIONS...AND UPPER MEXICO/SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS SE U.S. AND N FLORIDA INTERACTING WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS FAR NE WATERS TO IGNITE A CLUSTER OF DEEP CNVTN THERE THAT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY S WHILE CELLS MOVE EWD. NARROWING UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT SE AND INTO STRAITS BY 24 HOURS WITH DYNAMICS SHIFTING S AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE FLORIDA AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS YUCATAN DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING FRESH FLOW THERE...AND SEABREEZES ACROSS COASTAL ZONES. A SECOND FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO SINK S INTO NE PORTIONS EARLY TUE THEN DISSIPATED BY EVENING THEN MORE CLEARLY DEFINED FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS THU MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS WEAK HIGH ACROSS SW N ATLC HAS COLLAPSED LEAVING WEAK RIDGING ALONG 24-25N TO FL KEYS...WHICH IN TURN IS YIELDING A REDUCED PRES GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN...GENERALLY S OF 14N WHERE MAX SEAS ARE ONLY 9 FT. BUOY 42059 IN E CENTRAL CARIB ONLY AT 3 FT THIS MORNING AND REFLECTS LOWER SEA STATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL LOW HAVE MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND PR/USVI OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND NOT ENTERING HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIB ATTM. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BASE OF BROAD TUTT LOW ACROSS ATLC FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CELLS ACROSS PR AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE CNVTN EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF 13N AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WWD. OTHERWISE...WITH ATLC RIDGE HAVING RETREATED NE ACROSS NE ATLC...PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SW INTO NW BAHAMAS AND INCREASES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BASIN...AND BRINGS A RETURN TO PEAK NOCTURNAL WINDS NEAR 30 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA MON AND TUE NIGHTS...AND FRESH TRADES EXPANDING NWD THERE TO 15N OR SO. TOO...GFS FORECASTING FRESH NOCTURNAL WINDS ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THAT TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE INTO E COAST WATERS WED AND WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ACROSS BASIN WED THROUGH THU BEFORE RIDGE REBUILDS SLIGHTLY BY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAK RIDGING ALONG 24-25N COMBINING WITH SINKING FRONTAL ZONE TO PRODUCE FRESH SWLY FLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS TODAY...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 28N. PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONES FIRING LINES OF DEEP CNVTN THEN FADING WITH ADDITIONAL LINES DEVELOPING FURTHER NW AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO BE REACHING 30N ALONG ABOUT 77W ATTM. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY SHARP DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH S FL AND NW BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING WITH ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPING THERE AND JUST SE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT...EXCEPT GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT WITHIN RIDGE. NO CHANGE TO RECENT FORECAST REASONING AS RIDGE GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO NE AND FRONTAL ZONE DISSIPATES...ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO AREA LATE MON AND TUE AND LIFT SLIGHTLY N TO ALONG 27-28N. THIS TO FRESHEN ESE TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WITH SELY FLOW NEAR 15 KT THROUGH BAHAMAS...AND RETURN OF STRONG SEABREEZE OFF NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO MOVE NEAR NW PORTIONS WED-THU. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.