000 AGXX40 KNHC 080753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 353 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF 95W TO OVER S FLORIDA...AND E FROM THERE TO THE WESTERN ATLC. A 1015 MB HIGH PRES CELL IS ANALYZED AT 27N90W. LATEST BUOY/OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SHIP WITH CALLER ID "ELXX9" REPORTED NE 20 KT WINDS AT PSN 19.7N91.9W WITH SEAS OF 5 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT ARE ALSO ALONG THE NW TIP OF CUBA. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THIS PORTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND ARE IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK 1014-1015 MB HIGH CENTER ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N90W. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...AND S ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE SAME AREA TUE THROUGH WED. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH THIS TROUGH AS OBSERVED ON FRI EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS INDUCED AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WAS NOTED IN THE 0234 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EXPAND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUN AFTERNOON TO JUST A SMALL SWATH ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8-9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 7-8 FT TONIGHT... ...AND BUILD BACK TO 8-10 FT TUE AS ANOTHER AREA OF 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE GENERALLY GENTLE IN INTENSITY...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ZONES. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 6-7 FT SEAS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE FRESH TRADES. THE PRELIMINARY 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E-SE OF PUERTO RICO MOVING NEAR 17 KT. THIS FEATURE WAS EARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW THAT WAS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES YESTERDAY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SJU SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE WATERS SURROUNDING MOST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TO THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON MON NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FEATURES ANALYZED OVER THE AREA REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 25N/26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT FEATURE RESIDES NEAR 27N62W WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST E OF 65W FROM 25N TO 29N. INSTABILITY NEAR THIS LOW IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO EXIST FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. THE LOW IS FORWCAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH SUN THROUGH MON. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW ASCAT PASSES REVEAL RATHER GENTLE WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE E WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS REMAIN AT RATHER LOW STATES WITH WAVEHEIGHT RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE NW WATERS (ZONE AMZ111 AND THE WESTERN SECTION OF ZONE AMZ113). THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. TUE. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION LATE TUE NIGHT. OUTSIDE HIGHER SEAS ATTRIBUTED TO GUSTY WINDS FROM SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH CURRENT WIND/SEA CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.