000 AGXX40 KNHC 070736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 336 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF AS A WEAKER RIDGE ALONG 26N. LATEST BUOY/OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC INDICATED A SMALL SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS THERE. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING A RATHER LOW SEA STATE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE SE PORTION S OF 25N E OF 88W. THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS ONES WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK 1014-1015 MB HIGH CENTER ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N90W. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING SAT...THEN PULL E OF FLORIDA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH THIS TROUGH AS OBSERVED ON FRI EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH UTC MWW3 TO REFLECT RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS NOTED IN THE 0254 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY FRESH WINDS ON SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO STRONG ON MON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AGAIN. THE CURRENT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8-12 FT. THESE SEAS WILL ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 8-10 FT TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND BUILD BACK 8-10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE GENERALLY GENTLE IN INTENSITY...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ZONES. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. THE PRELIMINARY 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N59W WITH A TROUGH N TO NEAR 18N. BUOY 41300 WITH LOCATION AT 16N57.5W JUST RECENTLY REPORTED A MAX WAVEHEIGHT OF 8 FT IN INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY THAT IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...HOWEVER THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON ATTENDANT BY LESS COVERAGE IN DEEP MOISTURE AS A VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL WORK AGAINST ANY DEEP MOISTURE THAT REMAINS WITH THE TROUGH AS IT LEAVES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 8 FT IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE FREQUENCY HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE ONLY TROPICAL WAVE BEING ANALYZED IS ONE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 43W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. UPPER LEVEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL VORTICITY GUIDANCE GIVE SOME INDICATION THAT THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES SUN EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FEATURES ANALYZED OVER THE AREA REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27.5N72W. THIS HIGH IS ALONG A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM 28N65W SW TO THE 1017 MB AND SW TO S FLORIDA. A 1016 MB LOW IS JUST E OF THE AREA AT 27N60W. THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA WHERE A TUTT LOW IS LOCATED AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SEPARATE THE RIDGE OVER THE BASIN FROM STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW ASCAT PASSES REVEAL RATHER GENTLE WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH JUST SMALL POCKETS OF MODERATE E WINDS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. SEAS REMAIN AT RATHER LOW STATES WITH WAVEHEIGHT RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL TROUGHS SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE NW WATERS (ZONE AMZ111 AND THE WESTERN SECTION OF ZONE AMZ113). THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N MON NIGHT AND TUE. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION LATE TUE NIGHT. OUTSIDE HIGHER SEAS ATTRIBUTED TO GUSTY WINDS FROM SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH CURRENT WIND/SEA CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.