000 AGXX40 KNHC 060723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 323 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF REGION ROUGHLY ALONG 26N. A WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...PERSIST TO LATE FRI THERE...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SAT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. A FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS ON FRI WILL MOVE S REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE NE GULF STATES ON SAT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY BUT ALLOW FOR FRESHENING OF W TO SW WINDS S OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-6 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE WATERS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PULSING WINDS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS OUTER WATERS OF GULF OF HONDURAS. CARIBBEAN TRADES WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS NE. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 12N52W. THIS LOW IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY...CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRI... AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ONLY A MODEST WIND SURGE TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO WEAKENING RIDGE. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NOT EXPECTED INTO REGION UNTIL NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W-SW INTO FAR NW BAHAMAS AND S CENTRAL FLORIDA. A 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 28N72W AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO SINK S INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE NE GULF STATES ON SAT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE FAR NW WATERS PRODUCING FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS PARTS OF FORECAST ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113 FRI AND SAT. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 21.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.