000 AGXX40 KNHC 051836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN WWD ALONG ABOUT 27N INTO W CENTRAL PORTIONS. RECENT PARTIAL SCAT PASSES SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AROUND PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH SE TO S WINDS FROM SW PORTIONS INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS YIELDING SEAS 3-4 FT AND SW TO W WINDS E OF MOUTH OF MS RIVER YIELDING SEAS 2-3 FT. ATLC HIGH TO SHIFT NE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES E INTO EASTERN SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW ALONG MID ATLC COAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAGGING S INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF NE GULF STATES. THIS WILL WEAKEN RIDGE SLIGHTLY BUT ALLOW FOR FRESHENING OF W TO SW WINDS S OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI THROUGH SAT EVENING...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 4-6 FT. MODELS SUGGEST ABUNDANT PW SINKING INTO NE GULF FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AND POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES TO PREVAIL EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO EMERGE OFF OF THE YUCATAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT NW THROUGH FRI AND LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCT CNVTN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS STRONG ATLC RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GALES S OF 14N OVERNIGHT ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE ENDED...AND SUPPORTED BY A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL CARIB ATTM...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS OUTER WATERS OF GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NE ON THU AND ALLOW FOR THE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. N-S ALIGNED TUTT ACROSS W CARIB PROMOTING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WWD INTO THE BASIN CREATING STABLE REGIME N OF 14N AND E OF ABOUT 75W ATTM. THIS PATTERN TO SHIFT WWD NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH ATLC PORTION OF TUTT SINKING S TO ALONG 20N THU NIGHT THEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS NE CARIB FRI-SAT. UNFORTUNATELY...ONLY MODEST LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AND WILL NOT BRING MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF FOR THE ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE RECENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES NOT READILY IDENTIFIABLE THIS MORNING NOR IN LATEST GUIDANCE AND IT HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM MAP. TROPICAL LOW CROSSING 50W TODAY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WWD ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT...AND ACROSS THE SE CARIB SAT TO CENTRAL CARIB SUN. ONLY A MODEST WIND SURGE TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO WEAKENING RIDGE. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OFF AFRICA NOT EXPECTED INTO REGION UNTIL NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W-SW INTO FAR NW BAHAMAS AND S CENTRAL FLORIDA. A PAIR OF TUTT LOW REFLECTIONS ARE ANALYZED MOVING WWD INTO THE AREA ALONG ABOUT 55W AND 65W. PRES GRADIENT S AND SW OF BAHAMAS YIELDING FRESH TRADES EXCEPT STRONG WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA. OLD CONVERGENCE LINES STRUNG OUT NE TO SW OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA PRODUCING LINES OF ACTIVE CNVTN AND AIDING IN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS S FL ATTM. AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN LATE THU INTO THE WEEKEND...SYMPATHETIC HIGH TO DEVELOP E OF BAHAMAS...WHILE TROUGHS SHIFT WWD AND WEAKEN. FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE TO SINK S INTO FL PANHANDLE BY SAT...WITH FRESHENINGSW WINDS AHEAD OF IT OCCURRING LATE FRI THROUGH SAT THEN LIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA. GFS SEEMS TO NOW BE IN ALIGN WITH ECMWF THERE. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.