000 AGXX40 KNHC 291824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF HAS MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...MAINLY FROM 25N-28N E OF 84W BASED ON THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1426 UTC ASCAT-B PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SHIP CALL SIGN VQOG5 INDICATED NE WINDS OF 40 KT... WHILE BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR IS REPORTING 10 FT SEAS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA AT NIGHT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W/84W WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU... ENTER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1012 MB LOW PRES HAS MOVED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 30.5N79W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N81W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CURRENTLY...SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY N OF 29N E OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 77W. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 FT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLC RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 26N/27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT N AND STRENGTHEN BY FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.