000 AGXX40 KNHC 271639 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1239 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W...DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE TO E 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME EARLY THU WITH THE THU AND FRI EVENING EVENTS MAXING AT 15 KT. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA NW TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH THU...WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ALONG THE RIDGE. EXPECT 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 150 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND 10-15 KT E-SE FLOW ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE FAR NE GULF WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER QUASI-STATIONARY JUST NW OF TAMPA BAY ATTM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND N FL THIS EVENING WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY FILLING THROUGH WED AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE N-CENTRAL WATERS. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TS/RW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E- CENTRAL WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND IS DEPICTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE GFS BLENDED WITH LOW PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W WILL CONTINUE W AT 18 KT REACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SMALL CLUSTERS OF TS CONTINUE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WILL BE DEPICTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT NE-E WINDS TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE EVENING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON... WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED...AND THE W CARIBBEAN ON THU INTO FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON TUE NIGHT...ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 26N WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND RESULT IN A CHANGE OF DIRECTION TO THE 5-10 KT FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S SOME ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. A 150 NM WIDE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM BERMUDA ALONG 31N TO 78W...THEN TURNS SW ACROSS N FL. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON WED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS S...BUT STALL AGAIN BY EARLY THU...THEN DRIFT NW ON THU AND FRI AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 15-20 KT EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR 31N73W ON WED AS THE TROUGH IS ADVANCING EASTWARD. CYCLONIC 5-10 KT FLOW IS FORECAST NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH EVEN ON WED. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE... EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.