000 AGXX40 KNHC 261654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1254 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W...DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND ACCOMPANIED BY A NE TO E 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME DURING MID WEEK WITH THE THU EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING EVENT TO MAX AT 15 KT. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA NW TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ALONG THE RIDGE. EXPECT 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 150 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND 10-15 KT E-SE FLOW ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FL NW TO THE MS/LA BORDER AT 30N WITH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 28N83W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TODAY THEN DRIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT LEAVING A BROAD N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH TO MEANDER OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THU. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TS/RW ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND IS DEPICTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. DENSE LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE GULF FOR THE INITIAL 24 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH PERCENTAGE GFS BLENDED WITH LOW PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ON MON NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS RE-ANALYZED AND POSITIONED FURTHER W ALONG 69-70W AT DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE W AT ABOUT 18 KT PASSING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON WED. SMALL CLUSTERS OF TS CONTINUE NEAR THE WAVE AND WILL BE DEPICTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE TONIGHT...ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N55W TO THE FL STRAITS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N AND EXTEND E-W ALONG 26N BY MID WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERS DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF THE 5-10 KT FLOW EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A 180 NM WIDE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM BERMUDA ALONG 31N TO 75W...THEN TURNS SW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NW TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE TO THE S SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL STALL AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR 31N80W ON TUE. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A FORECAST SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW WILL MEANDER THROUGH THU WITH S-SW 10-15 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM SE OF THE LOW AND N OF THE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC 5-10 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE NEAR THE LOW AND NW OF FRONT. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.