000 AGXX40 KNHC 241844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 27N W OF 90W...AND N OF 28N E OF 90W. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE YUCATAN WILL PULSE THESE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN...ALONG WITH CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 85W THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS S AND DISSIPATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC IS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN US COAST. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND RESULT IN NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 12 FT N OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W S 0F 17N WILL MOVE ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ON SAT AND THEN OVER THE E PAC BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE US COAST MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE N OF 27N. AS THE LOW AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTS S OFF THE E COAST OF FL THROUGH SAT AND SUN...MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE LOW WITH ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY. THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONVECTION N OF 28N THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.