000 AGXX40 KNHC 221736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 136 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z WW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS COAST NEAR 30N94W. OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY W OF 92W. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT EACH EVENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 24N/25N SEVERAL MORE DAYS WELL INCLUDING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 27N60W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE ANCHORED IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS REACHING 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SEAS REACHING 10-12 FT IN THE VICINITY OF 12N77W SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT 25 KT WINDS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 9-11 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THU AND THU NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY THU AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI. THIS THIRD WAVE CURRENTLY EXHIBITS ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NORTHEAST OF THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE WEST WITH THE WAVE BRINGING INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH THE ABC ISLANDS AND COASTAL VENEZUELA ON THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N47W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND MOVE INFLUENCE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI...HOWEVER THEREAFTER THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N. GIVEN THE GENERAL WEAK NATURE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED...SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MODERATE BREEZE RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN N OF 26N. SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 FT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.