000 AGXX40 KNHC 190700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH OVER NE WATERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO 27N89W WILL WEAKEN BY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 4 FT OR LESS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-77W...WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 0000 UTC SHOWED 7-9 FT NEAR 14N77W. A BUOY NEAR 15N75W IS REPORTING 6-7 FT SEAS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE LOW NEAR COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. ALSO EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. TOTAL WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W MOVING W TOWARD THE TROPICAL N ATLC AT NEARLY 20 KT. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 21N. THE WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON. FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS TO 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ON TPW IMAGERY LOCATED NEAR 35W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 27N. THIS RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N/27N TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN SW WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY W OF 70W MON THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MIDLAT TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS MON THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.