000 AGXX40 KNHC 181811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NE WATERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA SHOW MODERATE W TO NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON SUN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 4 FT OR LESS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SW GULF AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1400 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS UP TO 11 FT NEAR 12N74.5W. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ALSO WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT ARE EXPECTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED N OF THE AREA IS INDUCING MODERATE SW FLOW OVER NW WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS FORECAST ZONE AMZ123...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN REGIONAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N/27N TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY W OF 70W MON THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MON THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.