000 AGXX40 KNHC 180650 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS AND WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NE WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR 26N85W WILL LINGER TODAY...AND MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. BUOY DATA SHOWS MODERATE W WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND 3-4 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 4 FT OR LESS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF YUCATAN INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS AND WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0230 UTC SHOWED MOSTLY KT WIND BARBS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH A FEW 25 KT WIND BARBS NEAR 13.5N 70.5W. A STATIC PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN NIGHT...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AS IT TRACKS MORE NWLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS AND WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA IS INDUCING MODERATE SW FLOW OVER NW WATERS. ASCAT DATA SHOWS FRESH E-SE WINDS N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N/27N TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE RIDGE AS SHORT WAVE MID-LATITUDE IMPULSES PASS NORTH OF 31N/32N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS WATERS MON THROUGH WED AS IT TRACKS NW AROUND THE RIDGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.