000 AGXX40 KNHC 171804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 204 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR 26N85W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SURFACE DATA INDICATE MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL. A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...AND ALSO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A STATIC PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W WILL REACH CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND MOVE WEST OF THE AREA SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY MON...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A 1011 LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N38W AND IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE NW WATERS JUST S OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED N OF AREA. THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS JUST N OF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N/27N TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ALONG 26N/27N WITH MINOR VARIATIONS AS SHORT WAVE MID-LATITUDE IMPULSES PASS NORTH OF 31N/32N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS MON AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.