000 AGXX40 KNHC 160745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OFF NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALLOW FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 15 TO 20 KT SURFACE WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF YUCATAN AS EVIDENCE OF THIS PROCESS. ELSEWHERE THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH-STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO FRI...THEN THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BE LIMITED TO OFF THE CENTRAL AND NW COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT AND WEST OF THE AREA SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF 55W LATE FRI...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST OF 55W SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH SW WINDS 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF 70W...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN AND THE SW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...THE ASCAT PASS ALSO DETECTED 20 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THIS SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR PULSES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY BY SAT ALLOWING THE GRADIENT RELAX INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED S OF 22N...AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.