000 AGXX40 KNHC 150757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OFF NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALLOW FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. ELSEWHERE THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH-STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO FRI...THEN THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BE LIMITED TO OFF THE CENTRAL AND NW COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN HAITI AND COLOMBIA WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS 55W THIS MORNING...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI INTO SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS WEST OF 55W SAT AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 24N/25N. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATED SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 30N W OF 77W...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH TODAY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE TODAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ENHANCE THE SW FLOW ACROSS FORECAST WATERS N OF 29N W OF 60W TODAY INTO THU. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN GOOD GENERAL CONSISTENCY AND BEEN IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS N OF 29N W OF 70W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST S OF 22N...WITH PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LITTLE CHANGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.