000 AGXX40 KNHC 140758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1015 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N91W IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MODERATE E FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE GULF. EVENING TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF E OF 94W...AS NOTED IN A 04 UTC ASCAT PASS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT IN MOST AREAS. RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF THROUGH THE NW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IN THE S CENTRAL GULF TODAY AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE STANDARD EVENING TROUGH OFF NW YUCATAN WILL ALLOW FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH-STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE S CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL AND CURACAO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF 55W TONIGHT...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED...CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF 55W LATE FRI AND APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SAT. THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODERATE SW FLOW IS NOTED N OF 30N W OF 77W...BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ELSEWHERE THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES N OF 25N AND MODERATE E FLOW S OF 25N. TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY N OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. THROUGH THU N OF 30N W OF 70W...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST GOING INTO MID WEEK...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA. DEEPENING LOW PRES N OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT EVEN MORE.THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SW WINDS WED NIGHT N OF 29N W OF 70W WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BACK OFF SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE FETCH REMAINS LIMITED AND SEAS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN 7 FT AT THE HIGHEST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.