000 AGXX40 KNHC 130736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 336 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NW GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MODERATE E FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE GULF. EVENING TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW GULF E OF 94W...AS NOTED IN A 04 UTC ASCAT PASS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF...AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN ATLC...EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST BY TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IN THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE INTO WED AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE STANDARD EVENING TROUGH OFF NW YUCATAN WILL ALLOW FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH-STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE S CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND WESTERN PANAMA WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TUE...AND ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF 55W TUE NIGHT...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED...AND CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODERATE SW FLOW IS NOTED N OF 30N W OF 77W...BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ELSEWHERE THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES N OF 25N AND MODERATE E FLOW S OF 25N. TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY N OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU N OF 30N W OF 70W...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST GOING INTO MID WEEK...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA. DEEPENING LOW PRES N OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT EVEN MORE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHETHER THE STRONG SW FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 30N W OF 77W BY TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SHOWING SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WED NIGHT N OF 29N W OF 70W WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE FETCH REMAINS LIMITED HOWEVER AND SEAS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN 7 FT AT THE HIGHEST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.