000 AGXX40 KNHC 120753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MODERATE E FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE GULF. EVENING TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW GULF E OF 94W...AS NOTED IN A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF...AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS PUSHED A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW GULF AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN ATLC...EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST BY TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IN THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE INTO WED AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE STANDARD EVENING TROUGH OFF NW YUCATAN WILL ALLOW FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH-STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SW WITH THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT RELAXING SOME...AND EFFECTIVELY SHRINKING THE AREA OF AFFECTED STRONG TRADES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON THU WITH FRESH-STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70-80W...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN HAITI AND COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE-WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS 55W TODAY...ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON...CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED AND THE SW CARIBBEAN THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODERATE SW FLOW IS NOTED N OF 30N W OF 77W...BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ELSEWHERE THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES N OF 25N AND MODERATE E FLOW S OF 25N. TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY N OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST GOING INTO MID WEEK...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING STRONG SW FLOW STARTING TUE NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THU N OF 28N W OF 75W. THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN. GIVEN THE ECMWF AND UKMET CONTINUE TO BE WEAKER S OF 31N...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY 15 TO 20 KT SW WINDS N OF 28N W OF 75W LATE TUE INTO THU WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. NO CHANGES ELSEWHERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.