000 AGXX40 KNHC 110800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MODERATE E FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE GULF. EVENING TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW GULF E OF 94W...AS NOTED IN A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF...AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS PUSHED A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW GULF AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN ATLC...EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST BY TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IN THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE INTO WED AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE STANDARD EVENING TROUGH OFF NW YUCATAN WILL ALLOW FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE WARNING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST CENTRAL COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SW WITH THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT RELAXING SOME...AND EFFECTIVELY SHRINKING THE AREA OF AFFECTED STRONG TRADES FROM SUN THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND THE SW CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF 55W LATE SUN...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON...CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 5-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO TUE AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N71W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES N OF 25N...AND MODERATE E FLOW S OF 25N. THE HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...EXTENDING FROM 25N60W TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...ESPECIALLY N OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE SW FLOW WILL PERSIST N OF 28N W OF 77W THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER COAST PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST GOING INTO MID WEEK...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE TUE...BUT HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE THESE WINDS FROM EARLIER RUNS. THE ECMWF INDICATES STRONGER SW FLOW LATER...BY LATE WED. OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.