000 AGXX40 KNHC 101733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 133 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE WNW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 23N BETWEEN 90-94W DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT AN E-SE 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT THROUGH WED. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF AND THUS ISOL TS DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS IN THAT AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN E-W RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING ALONG THE RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RE-ORIENTATE NW TO SE FROM THE MS DELTA TO FL BAY THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ON SUN REACHING A PSN FROM NE TX TO FL BAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN THE RIDGE WILL RE- ORIENTATE AGAIN SE TO NW FROM FL BAY TO NE TX BY LATE MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH-STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SW WITH THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT RELAXING SOME...AND EFFECTIVELY SHRINKING THE AREA OF AFFECTED STRONG TRADES FROM SUN THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND THE SW CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 5-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OBSERVATIONS MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N75W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING BOTH E AND W ALONG 29N. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED W TO E ALONG 28.5N ON SAT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE E PORTION FROM 26N72W TO 29N68W. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTATED E TO W ALONG 27N WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH WED. SW FLOW N OF 30N WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT ON SUN...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N W OF 75W BRIEFLY ON MON NIGHT. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BRIEFLY ON TUE EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW HISPANIOLA TO THE NW BAHAMAS WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN 540 NM NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING ISOL TS/RW WHICH WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.