000 AGXX40 KNHC 100811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 411 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND THE 00Z GFS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN GULF...REMNANTS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THAT PROPAGATED WEST INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SW GULF RELATED TO UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AS WELL. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE NW GULF BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT OVERALL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND THE 00Z GFS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS TO SHRINK AREA BY LATE SAT...BEING CONFINED TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TODAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND THE 00Z GFS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES N OF 27N...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES BETWEEN 22N AND 27N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES S OF 22N. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS N OF THE AREA MIGRATE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL MODERATE SW FLOW OVER AMZ111...N OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFF NE FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE WINDS INCREASING LATE MON AND TUE AS DEEPER LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 25N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH 20 TO 25 KT MON NIGHT IN AMZ111 WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET REMAIN SLIGHTLY WEAKER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.