000 AGXX40 KNHC 080834 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 435 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 CORRECTED FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AREA MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN SHIFT INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING BUILDS WELL E OF THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NW GULF THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GFS FORECAST AND THE NWPS WAVE FORECASTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SW TO NEAR 29N75W ON FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A RIDGE NEAR 28N OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH FRI THEN SHRINK BACK TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 81W WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND EXIT THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS/NWPS FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE AREA AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MWW3 AND 12Z EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SW TO NEAR 29N75W ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS TO ITS E. THE HIGH WILL DISSOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A RIDGE NEAR 28N THAT WILL SHRINK E AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER NW WATERS ON SUN. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 25N ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO FRI...WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERENCE TO ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE FORECAST AS IT GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC. SWELL IN THE NWPS IS CURRENTLY UNDERDONE AS IT WAS COLD STARTED 24 HOURS AGO. THE NWPS WAS NOT USED FOR THE ATLC FORECAST AS A RESULT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.