000 AGXX40 KNHC 070646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL PRIMARILY S OF 26N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS IN THE NW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GFS FORECAST AND THE NWPS WAVE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS/NWPS FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE AREA AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS AND 12Z EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING W-SW FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 29N79W WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS TO ITS E. OTHERWISE...MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 25N ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERENCE TO ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE FORECAST AS IT GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.