000 AGXX40 KNHC 290520 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FL BAY NW TO THE SW LA COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM THE ATLC RIDGE. LIGHT- GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 23-28N E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE SE- S WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THE S AND W-NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE THERMAL TROUGH 20-25 KT ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT THERMAL EVENT WILL SET UP ON TUE EVENING WITH E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 90-95W LATE TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 25N94W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR MAINLY SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT N TONIGHT BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE TEXAS ON TUE WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE NOCTURNAL PULSES TO GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 19 FT. THE N EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF 55W THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THE W CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO FORT PIERCE FL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO A POSITION FROM 29N65W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY N OF 29N WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N BETWEEN 71-76W ON TUE...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT ON TUE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST...BUT IMMEDIATELY STALL AND WASH OUT WHILE TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SW 15- 20 KT WINDS. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TUE. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.