000 AGXX40 KNHC 280521 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE E PORTION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM THE ATLC RIDGE. LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 23-28N E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE SE-S WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THE S AND W-NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE THERMAL TROUGH 20- 25 KT ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THE TUE EVENING EVENT WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WITH E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 90-95W LATE TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 25N96W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR MAINLY SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST THIS EVENING INTO MON...THEN SHIFT N EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE TEXAS BY TUE AND THEN MEANDERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A S HIGH AS 18 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS WESTWARD MOTION TO ABOUT 15 KT TODAY AND THEN PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SHOWERS...AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON...AND THE W CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT OF FORT LAUDERDALE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TODAY BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM 31N57W TO PORT OF MIAMI...THEN SHIFT N BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 31N60W TO FORT PIERCE FL ON TUE THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT FLOW CURRENTLY N OF 30N W OF 72W WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO S-SW 10-15 KT EVERYWHERE N OF THE RIDGE ON MON...BUT RE-STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT N OF 30N ON MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.