000 AGXX40 KNHC 270543 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 143 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AS HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM THE ATLC RIDGE. LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE RIDGE...WITH MODERATE SE-S WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THE W AND NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE THERMAL TROUGH ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS EVENINGS ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT EXPECT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON SUN EVENING. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING ACROSS THE TX COASTAL BEND AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF TODAY...DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST ON MON...THEN SHIFT N EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE TEXAS BY MID WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR INITIAL 72 HOURS THEN 100 PERCENT NWPS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 29N50W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTATED FROM 31N57W TO SE FL ON SUN NIGHT...THEN SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM 31N63W TO FORT PIERCE FL BY MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N W OF 70W TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO 15 KT WED NIGHT. MODERATE E- SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.