000 AGXX40 KNHC 261837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF TODAY ALONG ABOUT 27N AND IS YIELDING LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR FRESH NE WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF YUCATAN AND ACROSS MUCH OF ERN PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE... ASSOCIATED WITH YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH. UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS W PORTIONS NEAR 25N96W MAINTAINING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF SW AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND AIDING IN CNVTN ACROSS YUCATAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. IN ADDITION MOISTURE TRAILING A RECENT TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WNW ACROSS THE W CARIB AND YUCATAN. EXPECT RIDGE TO DRIFT S TO ALONG 25N THIS EVENING AND THEN TO ALONG 24N SAT. DEEP LAYERED LOW APPROACHES EASTERN SEABOARD AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO SE U.S. FRESHENING SWLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS NE PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING WLY AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY INTO MON AND TUE. RIDGE TO LIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY N BY MON AND BECOME A BIT MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED AND ALLOW FOR MORE ELY FLOW ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG YUCATAN SEABREEZE SUN-MON-TUE AFTERNOONS...YIELDING SCT- NUMEROUS CONVECTION EACH DAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS BROAD ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC TODAY...YIELDING STRONG LOW-MID LVL ELY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AND INTO THE CARIB...AND FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVES. RIDGE HAS BUILT VERY SLIGHTLY WWD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS PAST 24 HOURS AND MAINTAINING GOOD PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED GALE WARNINGS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. WINDS TO 30 KT EXTEND AS FAR N AS 15N...WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS 11-12 FT AS FAR W AS 81W AND VERY REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH WW3. WE CONTINUE TO PREFER NWPS DEPICTION OF CARIBBEAN SEA HEIGHTS USING A LIMITED BLEND WITH THE 12Z GLOBAL WAVE MODEL. OTHERWISE...FRESH BREEZE TRADES PERSIST REACHING THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER GUATEMALA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69/70W WILL EXTEND FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS. A LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE OVER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IS PRESENTLY ALONG 53W S OF 13N. THIS IS A VERY ENERGETIC WAVE THAT LEFT AFRICA WITH A 40-50 KT AEJ AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NE CARIB SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN CNVTN. ATLC RIDGE WILL REALIGN SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD WSW INTO THE NRN BAHAMAS AND PRODUCE STRONG TRADES ACROSS NE CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH ANCHORING 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W EXTENDING ALONG 28N-29N TO S FLORIDA. INDUCED PRES GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING FRESH E TO ESE TRADES S OF 24N E OF 76W. PRES GRADIENT AND LLVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVES WILL INDUCE STRONG AFTERNOON THERMALS ALONG N COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GFS FORECASTING WINDS PEAKING MOST DAYS AROUND 25-30 KT AT 00Z ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 7-9 EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL REACH SOLID 25 KT ALONG N AND S COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR 20 KT ALONG NE CUBA. RIDGE TO REALIGN MORE SW TO NRN BAHAMAS MON AND TUE. PRESENTLY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N70W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS. EXPECT THIS UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.