000 AGXX40 KNHC 260843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 443 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING ALONG ABOUT 27N AND IS YIELDING LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR FRESH NE WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF YUCATAN AND ACROSS MUCH OF ERN PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE...ASSOCIATED WITH YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH. UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS W PORTIONS AND MAINTAINING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF SW AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND AIDING IN CNVTN ACROSS YUCATAN AND ADJACENT WATERS ATTM AS MOISTURE TRAILING A RECENT TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WNW ACROSS THE W CARIB AND YUCATAN. RIDGE TO DRIFT S TO ALONG 25N TODAY AND THEN TO ALONG 24N SAT AND DEEP LAYERED LOW APPROACHES EASTERN SEABOARD AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO SE U.S. FRESHENING SWLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS NE PORTIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING WLY AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY INTO MON AND TUE. RIDGE TO LIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY N BY MON AND BECOME A BIT MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED AND ALLOW FOR MORE ELY FLOW ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG YUCATAN SEABREEZE SUN-MON-TUE AFTERNOONS...YIELDING SCT-NUMEROUS CONVECTION EACH DAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS BROAD ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC TODAY...YIELDING STRONG LOW-MID LVL ELY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AND INTO THE CARIB...AND FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVES. RIDGE HAS BUILT VERY SLIGHTLY WWD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS PAST 24 HOURS AND MAINTAINING GOOD PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN FOR CONTINUES GALES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS. EVENING SCAT PASSES SHOWED GALES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND IN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH WINDS TO 30 KT AS FAR N AS 15N...WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS 11-12 FT AS FAR W AS 81W AND VERY REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH WW3. WW3 LOOKS TO BE UNDERFORECASTING SW PROPAGATION OF TRADE WIND WELL INTO THE SW WATERS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA...WHERE ALTIMETER SHOWED SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT AT 01Z...AND ALSO IS LIKELY UNDERFORECASTING MAX SEAS BY A FEW FEET DOWNWIND OF COLOMBIA WIND MAX. WE CONTINUE TO PREFER NWPS DEPICTION OF THIS AND USING A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TO ABOUT 68-69W AND ARE REACHING THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH AND BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE THERE...AND ALSO EXTEND N OF HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM WITH A H85 PERTURBATION JUST AHEAD OF IT MOVING ACROSS NE CARIB AND PUERTO RICO ATTM...YIELDING SCT SHOWERS. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE NEXT 24 HOURS TO BRING ABOUT A BREAK IN THE GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING OF SEAS BY JUST A FEW FEET. WAVE TO REACH 65-66W BY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TO AROUND 75W BY SAT EVENING AND TO 81-82W BY SUN EVENING. STRONG TRADES TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT AS ATLC HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN RIDGE W PORTIONS. HOWEVER...NEXT LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND COMBINE WITH RIDGE TO FRESHEN TRADES E OF THE CARIB AND BEGIN TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS E AND NE CARIB FOR INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. THIS IS A VERY ENERGETIC WAVE THAT LEFT AFRICA WITH A 40-50 KT AEJ AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NE CARIB SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN CNVTN. ATLC RIDGE WILL REALIGN SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD WSW INTO THE NRN BAHAMAS AND PRODUCE STRONG TRADES ACROSS NE CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH ANCHORING 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 2.5N48.5W EXTENDING ALONG 28N-29N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. INDUCED PRES GRADIENT MAINTAINING FRESH E TO ESE TRADES S OF 24N E OF 76W ATTM. PRES GRADIENT AND LLVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVES TO INDUCE STRONG AFTERNOON THERMALS ALONG N COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GFS FORECASTING WINDS PEAKING MOST DAYS AROUND 25-30 KT AT 00Z ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 7-9 EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE WINDS REACH SOLID 25 KT N AND S COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR 20 KT NE CUBA. RIDGE TO REALIGN MORE SW TO NRN BAHAMAS MON AND TUE AND HIRES GFS SUGGESTINGPOTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE TO REACH GALES NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA... AND TO 30 KT NW PUERTO RICO. ALSO AS RIDGE REALIGNS THIS WEEKEND AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AFTERNOON SSE SEABREEZE ACROSS SE FLORIDA S OF PALM BEACH COULD VERY LIKELY REACH 15-20 KT BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS NE AND OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SWLY FLOW FORECAST TO INCREASE NW PORTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND FRESHEN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN EVENING...AND SPREAD E TO 70W. THIS TO OCCUR AS ATLC HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO THE NE ALLOWING RIDGE TO OPEN UN INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRADES VEERING SE TO S. TUTT PRESENTLY N OF HISPANIOLA TO REORGANIZE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT W SUN-MON AND WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CNVTN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND FAR SE PORTIONS DURING THAT TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.