000 AGXX40 KNHC 250850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 450 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING AND IS YIELDING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR FRESH NE WINDS OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND ACROSS MUCH OF ERN PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE...ASSOCIATED WITH YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH AND N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL WAVE COMING IN SYNCH AND SHIFTING WWD. FLOW THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHUATEPEC HAS INDUCED NLY GALES ON PACIFIC SIDE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W AND CROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY...WITH TRAILING MOISTURE AND STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AFFECTING THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PERIODS OF DEEP CNVTN. WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO SHIFT NW AND REORGANIZE BUT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE TO SINK SLOWLY SWD AND EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE OF SW FLORIDA W THEN NW INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...WITH MODERATE SLY FLOW DEVELOPING W PORTIONS BY FRI AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS N PORTIONS. THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRES GRADIENT INCREASING N AND SW OF RIDGE...YIELDING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N AND W PORTIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS BROAD ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING...WITH ANCHORING HIGH HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY W TO ALONG 56W...EXTENDING WWD ALONG 28N TO 70W THEN ALONG 29N TO OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR FAST TROPICAL WAVE MOTION ACROSS THE MDR...A STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET WITH EACH WAVE...AND TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB. GALES CONTINUE OFF OF COLOMBIA EXTENDING N TO ABOUT 14N THIS MORNING...UNUSUAL FOR SUMMER. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...WITH NEXT LOWER LAT WAVE ALONG ABOUT 77W ATTM. GALES OFF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NEAR 30 KT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50-51W ATTM. BROAD ZONE OF STRONG TRADES HAVE SPREAD INTO GULF OF HONDURAS COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK...SINKS S TO ALONG 25N AND MAINTAINS GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS W PORTIONS OF BASIN. OFFSHORE SEAS HAVE BUILT 7-11 FT S OF 18N W OF 80W AND WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE PEAK SEAS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND DOWNSTREAM WILL BUILD 15-18 FT AND HIGHER THIS MORNING AND FRI MORNING. SAL IS NOW BUILDING INTO ERN CARIB AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND WILL PRODUCE STABLE HAZE CONDITIONS WITH FRESH TRADES AND SEAS 6-8 FT GENERALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS ERN CARIB FRI...WITH MUCH OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND ENERGY ADVECTING NW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC. GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA TO PULSE AT NIGHT THIS WEEKEND. A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 33W ATTM WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE MDR NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE ABOUT 10 DEGREES PER DAY...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 40-45 KT AEJ. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT AND MORE WNW ACROSS THE ERN CARIB SAT...WITH THIS AEJ HITTING THE LEEWARDS AND NE CARIB ISLANDS SAT NIGHT AND LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY BRIEF BUT SQUALLY WEATHER AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN CNVTN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH ANCHORING HIGH HAVING SHIFTED WWD TO NEAR 28.5N56W THIS MORNING... EXTENDING WWD ALONG 28N-29N TO OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY EWD THROUGH FRI THEN WWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INDUCED PRES GRADIENT PRODUCING FRESH E TO ESE TRADES S OF 24N E OF 76W THIS MORNING...AND WW3 GUIDANCE LIKELY NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH SEAS THROUGH THE SRN WATERS DURING THE PERIOD. PRES GRADIENT AND LLVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVES TO INDUCE STRONG AFTERNOON THERMALS ALONG N COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GFS FORECASTING WINDS PEAKING MOST DAYS AROUND 30 KT AT 00Z ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 7-9 EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE WINDS REACH SOLID 25 KT OFF PORTIONS OF N COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR 20 KT NE CUBA. UPPER LOW N OF THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE TO TUTT AXIS BY SAT BUT REMAIN IN FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CNVTN ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES. NARROW ATLC RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS PAST WEEK OR SO TO BROADEN FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND OPEN UP ALONG THE SE COAST OF U.S. FOR FRESHENING SLY WINDS FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY SAT EVENING THEN VEERING SW N OF 27N ON SUN AND EXPANDING EWD ACROSS NW WATERS. THIS SCENARIO AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF SEABREEZE EACH DAY AND THINK WINDS WILL REACH 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SEA YOU IN THE WATER. A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 33W ATTM WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE MDR NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE ABOUT 10 DEGREES PER DAY...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 40-45 KT AEJ. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT AND MORE WNW ACROSS THE ERN CARIB SAT AND INTO SE WATERS SAT NIGHT. ASSOCIATED AEJ HITTING THE LEEWARDS AND NE CARIB ISLANDS SAT SE WATERS SAT NIGHT LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY BRIEF BUT SQUALLY WEATHER AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN CNVTN...AND REACHING SE BAHAMAS SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.