000 AGXX40 KNHC 230822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS SE PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN TO GENERATE SCT CNVTN SHIFTING SLOWLY WNW...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WNW ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS NEXT 24-36 HRS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF AND MEANDER SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EXCEPT MODERATE E TO SE WINDS FAR W AND SW PORTIONS. YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WINDS 15-20 KT EACH AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE N PORTION OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN WED AND ACROSS SW PORTIONS THU TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER. TRAILING MOISTURE AND LLVL ENERGY CURRENT MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT ATLC WILL REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND MOVE ACROSS SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS FRI. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS BROAD AND PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N-29N IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WHILE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO NEAR 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF SW HISPANIOLA. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 74W AND MOVING INTO ZONE OF UPPER CONVERGENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR S AND SW OF HISPANIOLA ATTM. MID TROPOSPHERIC JET KICKED OFF SQUALLS AND NEAR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT NE CARIB TODAY WITH H7 TROUGH AXIS. THIS 30-35 KT AEJ WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR WEATHER ACROSS THE SW CARIB THIS AFTERNOON...GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WED. WINDS HAD DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS TODAY BUT WILL RETURN TO NOCTURNAL PULSING TO GALE OFF OF COLOMBIA NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 40 KT TONIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT...BEHIND NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS TO BUILD TO 12-17 FT WITH EACH OF THESE EPISODES WITH SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO 18-19 FT POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD WAVE FIELD OVER 8 FT AND PUSH LARGE ELY SWELL INTO SW PORTIONS AS HIGH AS 11-12 FT NEXT FEW DAYS. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W ATTM IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 30-35 KT AEJ AND WILL TRIGGER SQUALLS AND DEEP CNVTN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WWD...REACHING 65W THIS EVENING...72W WED EVENING...AND 78W THU EVENING. A VERY LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE E CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU EVENING WITH ABUNDANT ZONE OF SAL AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRI MORNING AND LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT WATERS FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BROAD AND PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N-29N IS WELL ESTABLISHED E OF 70W AND EXTENDS WEAKLY TO N CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED FROM N OF MONA PASSAGE 24 HOURS AGO TO 70W ATTM AND IS AIDING IN DRAWING TROPICAL WAVE RELATED MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO SE PORTIONS AND HAS INTERACTED FOR STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE CNVTN BETWEEN 60W AND 68W PAST 24 HOURS. LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND BEGIN TO REORGANIZE ALONGABOUT 70W THROUGHOUT REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE E AND SE OF IT. LLVL WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NW AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PRODUCE POCKETS OF DEEP CNVTN...REACHING CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TRADES S OF 23N FRESHENING TODAY BEHIND CENTRAL CARIB TROPICAL WAVE. GFS SUGGESTING STRONG DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF TRADES OFF NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT AND 9 FT BY 00Z EACH DAY THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.