000 AGXX40 KNHC 220831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 431 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A 1020 MB HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28.5N87.5W. ALTHOUGH THIS POSITION IS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT N FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL AND ACROSS SE PORTIONS NOW ELY 10-15 KT...WHILE W OF 90W WINDS REMAIN MODERATE E TO SE EXCEPT FOR THERMAL TROUGH INFLUENCE W OF THE YUCATAN...WHERE NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT PREVAIL WITH SEAS LIKELY 4-6 FT. THIS PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BEFORE HIGH COLLAPSES AND WEAK RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLIGHTLY N ACROSS THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS AS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS VERY WEAKLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND CONNECTS WITH NE GULF. UPPER LOW ACROSS YUCATAN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NW WED AND INDUCE INSTABILITY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GULF. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AEJ THAT WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN WED AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO SHIFT W AND NW OFF OF THE YUCATAN WED EVENING AND ACROSS SW PORTIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS A 1027 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28.5N48W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 28N/29N TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. THE WEAK HIGH WITHIN THE RIDGE INVOF 75W FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS COLLAPSED AND THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIB HAS WEAKENED EVER SO SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES BETWEEN 69W-79W WITH NOCTURNAL GALES OCCURRING AGAIN THIS MORNING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. THE WAVE FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST 36-48 HOURS PER MODEL OUTPUT...WITH NO RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. HOWEVER...BUOY 42058 HAS DROPPED TO 7.5 FT IN PAST HOUR AND HAS NOT BEEN BELOW 8 FT IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES SUGGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AROUND 30 KT AT 02Z AND ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE REACHED MINIMAL GALES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SCAT PASSES ALSO REVEAL THAT 20 KT TRADES ALSO NOW EXTEND ONLY TO 15.5N OR SO. THIS MODEST REDUCTION IN WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS ERN CARIB ATTM...LOCATED ALONG 66-67W ATTM...WITH ALMOST ALL OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE E OF AXIS...AS WELL AS A TRAILING H85 VORT LOBE SHIFTING NW INTO CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ATTM. ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW WELL ESTABLISHED AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO ERN CARIB MOVING RATHER QUICKLY AT 18-20 KT. THIS WAVE AND NEXT ONE ALONG ABOUT 47W ATTM ARE BOTH DEPICTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 30-35 KT AEJ. AXIS OF WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY WWD AND REACH 69-70W THIS EVENING...76W TUE EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO SLOW AND REACH ABOUT 80-81W BY WED EVENING. WAVE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALREADY INTERACTING WITH UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING WWD TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SQUALLS AND TSTMS ACROSS LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS SHIFTING NW INTO VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTIONS OF WAVE TO SPLIT ACROSS NE CARIB WITH A PORTION OF THE H85 VORT LOBE SHIFTING NW AND MAINLY PASSING N OF PR AND MOVING INTO ATLC. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WEATHER TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE TO PRODUCE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND WAVE PASSAGE TUE AFTERNOON-EVENING THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK TO SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD SEAS ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS...AND BRING A RETURN TO NOCTURNAL GALE WARNINGS OFF OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. GIVEN FORECAST STRENGTH OF 925 MB WINDS OF 50 KT TUE NIGHT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE 40 KT WINDS AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT TUE-WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE WINDS BEHIND WAVE AXIS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO 20 KT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT LIKELY...AND SEAS 7-8 FT...POSSIBLY ISOLATED AREAS TO 9 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS MORE LOW LAT AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE AND MOVE INTO SE CARIB LATE TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ATLC SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 28-29N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH MODERATE ELY TRADES S OF 23-24N NOW SPREADING THROUGH STRAITS OF FL. E CARIB TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND ACROSS NE CARIB AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE AND INTERACT WITH PREVAILING UPPER LOW ACROSS THAT AREA FOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS. GFS INDICATING DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF TRADES ALONG N COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES STARTING TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT NW WATERS OF HISPANIOLA EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STARTING TUE. GFS SUGGESTING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE OF 25-30 KT ALONG NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA TUE AND WED. OFF TO CABARETE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.