000 AGXX40 KNHC 201843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF OFFSHORE OF TAMPA BAY WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH TO MEANDER ABOUT THE NE GULF THROUGH THU. WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE GULF...MODERATE E WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND 2-4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH WED AS THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...ELONGATED UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND YUCATAN WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF WHILE REORGANIZING OVER THE YUCATAN TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 28N76W. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LLVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN ARE TO PRODUCE STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH GALE WARNINGS SUGGESTED BY RECENT SCAT PASSES OFF OF COLOMBIA AND IN GULF OF VENEZUELA. AN ALTIMETER PASS ALONG 78W-81W OVER SW PORTIONS SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT AS FAR W AS 13N79.5W...AND SEAS 8-11 FT IN SW PORTIONS N OF PANAMA. GFS HAD GALE WARNINGS OFF COLOMBIA TODAY UNTIL 15Z AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG TRADES BRIEFLY PULSING TO GALE WARNINGS AROUND 00Z IN GULF OF VENEZUELA. GFS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE BRIEFLY AGAIN ON TUE BUT BACK TO GALE ON WED EVENING AND THU EVENING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRESENTLY ALONG 54W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL BE ALONG 60W SUN...AND ALONG 66W OVER PUERTO RICO MON WITH CONVECTION. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N76W PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH FRESH ELY TRADES S OF 23N E OF 76W PER RECENT SCAT PASSES. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE SUN AND BE REPLACED WITH A RIDGE ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUE THROUGH THU WITH CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.