000 AGXX40 KNHC 200819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 419 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF OFFSHORE OF TAMPA BAY WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING W THEN WNW TO NW PORTIONS. HIGH TO MEANDER ABOUT THE NE GULF THROUGH MON WHILE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NE THEN COLLAPSE BY WED AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N AND INLAND ALONG N GULF COAST. THIS WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE GULF...MODERATE E WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND 2-4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH WED AS THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...ELONGATED UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND YUCATAN ATTM WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF WHILE REORGANIZING OVER THE YUCATAN TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. STRONG LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE CARIB WILL HELP TOP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES ACROSS YUCATAN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 28.5N73W... AND ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAK...ITS POSITION DUE N OF CENTRAL CARIB IS COMBINING WITH STRONG LLVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN TO PRODUCE STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH GALES SUGGESTED BY RECENT SCAT PASSES OFF OF COLOMBIA AND IN GULF OF VENEZUELA. A 0046Z ALTIMETER PASS ALONG ABOUT 78W-81W OVER SW PORTIONS SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT AS FAR W AS 13N79.5W...AND SEAS 8-11 FT IN SW PORTIONS N OF PANAMA. TOO...BUOY 42058 BRIEFLY SHOT UP TO 13 FT. GFS FORECASTING GALES OFF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG TRADES BRIEFLY PULSING TO GALES AROUND 00Z IN GULF OF VENEZUELA. LATEST SURGE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NOW INVOF 80W. THIS WAVE TO REACH OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THIS EVENING AND THEN INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND SUN WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LOW OVER YUCATAN. UPPER LOW JUST N OF NE CARIB TO OSCILLATE THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT WWD AND WILL INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF 50W. THIS WAVE SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND STLT TO HAVE LLVL PERTURBATION TRAILING MAIN WAVE AXIS AND IS REFLECTED BY SFC TROF IN GLOBAL MODELS. WAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES SUN EVENING WITH WIND MOISTURE AND WIND SURGE BEHIND AXIS RAISING WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AS STEARING FLOW RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS NE CARIB. ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT ACROSS LEEWARDS AND NE CARIB SHIFTING WWD AND MAY BEGIN TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN RELIEF TO THE ISLANDS THERE. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH MODERATELY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AHEAD OF THIS FAST MOVING WAVE MON THROUGH EARLY TUE BEFORE WAVE MOVES W OF 70W TUE AND STRONG TRADES AND PULSING GALES RETURN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR 00Z RUN OF NWPS LOOKED SLIGHTLY HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH MAX SEAS TO 19 FT AND HAVE BLENDED IT IN SLIGHTLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28.5N73W...WITH INVERTED TROFFING 65-70W AND SEPARATING THIS HIGH FROM CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N. THIS PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH FRESH ELY TRADES S OF 23N E OF 76W PER RECENT SCAT PASSES. UPPER LOW JUST N OF NE CARIB TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO IT E AND SE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT WWD SUN-MON-TUE AND WILL INTERACT WITH N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL WAVE AND TRAILING LLVL VORT TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. GFS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN WAY OF QPF WITH THIS INTERACTION. WEAK HIGH FORECAST TO COLLAPSE ON SUN WITH CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDING GRADUALLY WWD OF 70W THEN REACHING WEAKLY TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT AND TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS WITH AND BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. GFS FORECAST AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO 25 KT AND SEAS 7 FT MON-TUE-WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.