000 AGXX40 KNHC 161806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 12Z TAFB-NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM WARNING BILL WAS CENTERED NEAR 28.2N 96.4W OR ABOUT 13 NM SE OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT...AND IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND BAFFIN BAY OUT 60 NM. MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST TAFB- NWPS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND AN EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS. WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS FOR THE NEAR TERM ARE BASED ON A HEAVILY MANUALLY MODIFIED TAFB-NWPS TO REFLECT LARGE WAVE HEIGHTS NOT DETECTED BY BUOYS. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE NW GULF AFTER BILL MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT E OF 87W AND 4-7 FT W OF 87W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF BILL. HIGH PRES WILL LINGER IN THE FAR NE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RIDGING PREVAILING. UNDER THIS PATTERN EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NW-W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A TROUGH WILL FORM AND PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 12Z MWW3 WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG ATLC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FT. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BEHIND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A PASSING TROPIAL WAVE. THIS MAY PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT BRIEFLY THEN DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. OTHER MAJOR MODELS INDICATE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY AT NIGHT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG WITH EAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT S OF 15N THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...SUBSIDING THEREAFTER. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N BY SUNDAY AS THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 12Z MWW3 WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ALONG ROUGHLY 28N WHICH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN BRIEF WIND SHIFTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AS LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.