000 AGXX40 KNHC 160703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 06Z TAFB-NWPS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS CENTERED NEAR 27.6N 95.3W OR ABOUT 83 NM SE OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS OR ABOUT 104 NM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT. BILL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF ZONE GMZ013 AND FOR ALL OF GMZ011. SO FAR AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS HAS NOT VERIFIED WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE NW GULF AFTER BILL MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT E OF 87W AND 4-7 FT W OF 87W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF BILL. HIGH PRES WILL LINGER IN THE FAR NE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RIDGING PREVAILING. UNDER THIS PATTERN EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NW-W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL FORM AND PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL EXIT OFF TO THE W LATER THIS MORNING. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY UP TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH A DIURNALLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE EACH NIGHT. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE MEASURED IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE SOLID 30 KT WERE PRESENT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL THUS SUPPORT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 13-15 FT BY WED THROUGH FRI. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WATERS ALONG WITH 5-7 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR 55W. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 55W SAT NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ALONG ROUGHLY 28N WHICH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN BRIEF WIND SHIFTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AS LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.