000 AGXX40 KNHC 150706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 306 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N92.5W 1007 MB MOVING NW AT 12 KT. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES DID NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED OR CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AND CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE SCATTEROMETER DATA DID INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF ZONE GMZ019 AS WELL AS THE N CENTRAL GMZ013 AND NW GMZ011 ZONES THROUGH 12 UTC TUE AS THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NW. THE LOW DOES HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTIMETER DATA MEASURED SEAS UP TO 16-17 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS AS WELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INLAND EARLY TUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO EASTERN TEXAS WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TUE AS HIGH PRES RIDGING BECOMES ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES IN THE NE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RETURN/SE FLOW FOR THE BASIN EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND 4-6 FT IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE PENINSULA PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE NW EACH MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AS LOW PRES NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W/82W WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING N-NE OF THE BASIN AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SURROUND THESE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO PULSE NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 13-15 FT NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH MORNING...ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND STRONGER TRADES OVERALL EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT AS A RESULT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TRADES ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WATERS WITH CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 14N MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 8-9 FT SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SQUALLY CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS WITH ITS PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST FRESH TRADES AND 8-9 FT SEAS WILL RETURN TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WITH CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVING YET AGAIN (MODERATE TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING IS ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG 29N AND IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 27N AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 27N...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO STRONG LEVELS TUE NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGING ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH BY 5 KT OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AS LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.