000 AGXX40 KNHC 140715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W AND IS MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE N ALONG 31N JUST INLAND OVER THE U.S. GULF COAST STATES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE TEXAS WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF NE MEXICO. IN ADDITION...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE S CENTRAL AND SE GULF NEAR WESTERN CUBA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE NW-N WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...MOVING INLAND OVER TEXAS TUE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE POSSIBLE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...HOWEVER THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER AS FAR AS THE ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS. THE PRES GRADIENT DOES APPEAR TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT GALE WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ZONES...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRES GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WEAKENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NW GULF. THE LOW CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRES AND RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN. EXPECT DIURNAL TROUGHING TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN EACH EVENING/LATE NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE TO THE W OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING WITH PULSING FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE...A BROAD 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W AND IS MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPANDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS ZONE AMZ011 INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING JUST NE OF THE AREA IS LIKELY SUPPORTING SE GALE FORCE WINDS IN ZONE AMZ011 WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NW AWAY FROM THE AREA. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CORNER OF ZONE AMZ033 INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE A GALE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...STRONGEST/NEAR GALE FORCE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EVERY DAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING HOLDS AND AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 15N WITH ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLING 8-10 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 50W PASSES BY...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING IS ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG 29N AND IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 27N AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 26N...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGING ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH BY 5 KT OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AS LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.