000 AGXX40 KNHC 130644 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N87W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES DID NOT INDICATE ANY SURFACE TROUGHING HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL GULF DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RIDGING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE EXTREME SE TEXAS COAST BY MON NIGHT. DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WITH THE GFS INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGHING. THE ECMWF INDICATES WINDS TO 30 KT WITH WEAKER LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE E TO THE W MON NIGHT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE E GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S FLOW AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE W GULF TUE THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN HIGH. BUILDING ATLC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE SUPPORTING STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...AND UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. RECENT IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER PASSES DEPICT THESE WINDS ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS...THE HIGHEST NEAR 12.5N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SAMPLED FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA. FARTHER EAST...A LONG FETCH OF FRESH TRADE WINDS IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 16N AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER DATA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE GFS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE TROUGHING MOVES NW OF THE AREA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THUS ALSO HAS WEAKER WINDS. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 00Z WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED ALONG ROUGHLY 29N AND IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 26N AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 26N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE N OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE N THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY INTO SUN...THEN WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA BY MON. THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AS LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.