000 AGXX40 KNHC 101835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH SAT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z TAFB NWPS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. CURRENTLY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN MOST AREA. THE EARLIER 20 KT N WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN HAVE DIMINISHED. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS RELATED TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN ALLOWING SE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT OVER NW TO SE SWATH FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS FOLLOW TAFB NWPS SHOWING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SERVES AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MWW3 SHOWING SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON...AND THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL SHOWING LESS THAN 8 FT FOR THE SAME TIME AND PLACE. CONSENSUS SHOWS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING FRI INTO SAT AS THE LOW PRES IN THE PACIFIC WEAKENS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SW GULF...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER PACIFIC LOW...CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE AND RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SE FLOW THIS TIME OVER THE EASTERN GULF. FOR LATE PERIODS OF FORECAST WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH OF A GFS/ECMWF MODEL BLEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS/12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHIP ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE RECENTLY REPORTED E WINDS OF 20 KT AS GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCED BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 87W AND ATLC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING SW TO JUST N OF JAMAICA. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W THROUGH FRI BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU. STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING THU AS WELL DUE TO THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N W OF 55W BY LATE THU AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS S IN THE WAKE OF PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W BY LATE SAT...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TRADES AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS/12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N59W TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW AT 27N65W AND TO NEAR 25N73W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOTED ALONG AND NEAR THE TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH SW TO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF ZONE 111 RELATED TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS NOTE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OVER THE BASIN. THE 4-5 FT SEAS IN A NE TO E SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND PER LATEST ALTIMETER PASS ARE NOW CONFINED FROM 21N TO 28N. ELSEWHERE... SEAS ARE 3-4 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR 28N FRI AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S OF 22N SOUTH OF THE RIDGE WHERE FRESH TRADES WILL SET UP BY LATE FRI. THE WINDS WILL PULSE SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT LATE FRI AND SAT DUE IN PART TO PASSING TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE NWP MODELS... TO SOME DEGREE...ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK TOUGH MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION EARLY NEXT FROM OFF THE SE U.S. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.